How the U.S.-Canada Trade War and U.S. Policies Are Affecting Tourism

DEAN NELSON (he/him) CTC, LLD
Dec 5
10 min read

For many international travellers, entering the U.S. no longer feels routine — it feels uncertain.

In the past year, escalating trade tensions and hardline U.S. policies have coincided with a notable decline in foreign tourism to the United States. Travelers from Canada, Europe, and elsewhere are increasingly uneasy about visiting the U.S. amid aggressive trade measures, stringent border enforcement, and a charged political climate. Below we examine recent trends (within the last 10 months) from Canadian, European, and American perspectives, and how foreign nationals are feeling intimidated, vulnerable, and hesitant about U.S. travel.

Canadian Travelers Are Staying Away

The U.S.-Canada land border, where cross-border traffic has sharply declined amid trade tensions and heightened scrutiny. paxnews.com.

Tourism from Canada to the U.S. has dropped significantly in 2025. In March 2025 alone, nearly 900,000 fewer Canadians traveled to the United States compared to March 2024 – a 17% year-over-year decline, described by media as “one of the worst drops outside of the COVID-19 crisis”paxnews.com. This slump is attributed largely to President Donald Trump’s trade war and antagonistic rhetoric toward Canada, combined with economic factors like a weak Canadian dollar paxnews.com. Trump has repeatedly treated Canada less like an ally and more like a target – even quipping about “colonizing [Canada] as the 51st state”, a remark that offended many Canadians theguardian.com. Such White House attitudes have fueled national pride-driven boycotts, with Canadians consciously choosing to vacation at home or in friendlier destinations instead of the U.S. cbsnews.com

The numbers bear this out: Tourism analysts forecast a 15% annual drop in Canadian visits to the U.S. in 2025 cbsnews.com. By February 2025, cross-border car trips from Canada had already plunged 24% year-on-year cbsnews.com. Major Canadian airlines even cut back flights to U.S. cities like Las Vegas, New York, and L.A. as bookings from Canada “plunged” theguardian.com. Instead of heading south, Canadians are opting for domestic travel or trips to Europe, the Caribbean, and Latin America cbsnews.com. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explicitly urged Canadians to “choose Canada” for their vacations, encouraging exploration of local parks and sites rather than U.S. destinations cbsnews.com.

Europeans and Others Feel Unwelcome in “Trump’s America”

It’s not just Canadians – travelers from Europe and other allied countries are also losing interest in U.S. visits. Overall overseas visitation to America dropped 11.6% in March 2025 compared to the previous year theguardian.com. Notably, arrivals from Western Europe fell by a steep 17.2% theguardian.com. Countries like Spain and Germany saw 25–28% fewer visitors heading to the U.S. theguardian.com. Travel industry experts say this downturn is no coincidence – it reflects mounting antipathy toward the U.S. amid trade disputes and headline-making border incidents theguardian.com.

Trade War Backlash: The White House’s escalating tariff battles with the EU, Mexico, China, and others have soured international sentiment. For example, the U.S. at one point threatened 50% tariffs on EU goods and a 200% tariff on European wine, stoking outrage in Europe independent.co.uk. According to one tourism report, such trade aggressions create a perception that “the U.S. is blowing up not just its economy but everyone else’s” – and “people don’t think it’s fair, so why would they go to America?” theguardian.com. The result is a projected 5% overall drop in international travel to the U.S. in 2025 (versus growth that had been expected pre-trade war) cbsnews.com. The U.S. Travel Association warns that if Washington “gets this policy wrong, millions of travelers could take their business and billions of dollars elsewhere” reuters.com.
Hardline Policies & Safety Fears: Beyond economics, many foreigners feel the current U.S. immigration and border policies are hostile or frightening. Trump’s administration has pursued aggressive immigration enforcement – with high-profile deportations and detentions at U.S. airports – that have been widely reported abroad theguardian.com. For example, news of travelers being detained and held in uncomfortable conditions spread in Europe, prompting the UK, Germany and other countries to update their travel advisories for the U.S. theguardian.com. (These advisories caution that visitors may face extensive screening or even refusal of entry.) One traveler originally from Canada told the Guardian she canceled her annual U.S. trip because “I don’t feel safe… I’m too old and tired to sleep on concrete”, referring to fears of being detained overnight at the border theguardian.com. This climate has fed a so-called “Trump slump” in tourism: what was expected to be a banner post-pandemic year is now predicted to see a 12% drop in international visitors, amounting to a $10 billion loss in spending theguardian.com.
Political Rifts: Europeans are also reacting to broader political stances. Trump’s much-criticized handling of the Ukraine–Russia war – perceived in Europe as too sympathetic to Russia – has “affected European sentiment toward the U.S. and therefore their interest in traveling” to America cbsnews.com. In other words, foreign publics are linking U.S. foreign policy attitudes with their personal travel choices. Combined with the trade-war grievances, this has created an unprecedented level of unease and moral opposition to U.S. vacations in some EU countries.

Foreign Nationals Feel Intimidated at U.S. Borders

A key reason tourists are nervous: many have heard alarming stories of what can happen upon entering the United States. On social media and in news reports, people around the world have shared stories of U.S. travel gone wrong – from being pulled into back rooms for hours of questioning, to being pressured to hand over their social media accounts, to, in worst cases, being denied entry and detained overnight podcasts.apple.com. This kind of experience understandably leaves visitors feeling vulnerable and targeted.

Harsh Entry Scrutiny: The Canadian government updated its official travel advice in April 2025 to warn that U.S. border agents have broad discretion and strictly enforce entry rules – and to remind Canadians that Ottawa “cannot intervene if U.S. officials deny you entry.” It explicitly tells travelers to “expect scrutiny at ports of entry, including of electronic devices.” paxnews.com. Many foreign nationals now approach U.S. customs with trepidation, aware that their phones or laptops might be searched and that any misstep could see them turned away. There is also confusion over new rules: for instance, the U.S. began requiring visa applicants to submit their social media handles in 2019, and in late 2025 proposed extending this to visa-waiver visitors from countries like the UK, EU, Japan, and Australia reuters.com. If implemented by early 2026, travelers under the Visa Waiver Program would have to provide 5 years of social media history, 10 years of email addresses, plus extensive personal and family data reuters.com. The U.S. Travel Association cautions that such invasive vetting will have a “chilling effect” on tourism reuters.com, as privacy-conscious visitors simply choose not to bother.
Selective Targeting: Certain groups feel especially at risk. In Canada, university faculty were warned to avoid non-essential travel to the U.S. if they belong to categories likely to draw scrutiny in “Trump’s political landscape”paxnews.com. The Canadian Association of University Teachers advised that academics from countries with tense U.S. relations, those who have publicly criticized Trump, people researching topics contrary to U.S. policy, or anyone who identifies as transgender, could face “heightened risks” at the border paxnews.com. This kind of guidance underscores a growing fear that U.S. authorities may single out travelers based on nationality, beliefs, or personal characteristics – a stark departure from the welcoming image America’s tourism industry typically projects.
Detentions Making Headlines: The Guardian reported that from mid-March 2025 onward, a series of high-profile detainments and deportations of foreign visitors grabbed attention, particularly in Europe theguardian.com. For example, there were accounts of European tourists being unexpectedly held and sent home despite having valid travel documents. Such incidents, amplified by media, contribute to a narrative that “people are scared to come to the US”, even as President Trump insists “No... We treat our tourists great” theguardian.com. The data, however, suggests many potential tourists aren’t convinced: they’re staying away to avoid the risk of humiliation or worse.

Social Media Backlash and “Boycott America” Calls

On platforms like TikTok, X (Twitter), Instagram, and Facebook, users are voicing their apprehension – and even urging others to steer clear of U.S. travel. In December 2025, a TikTok video by a Canadian user went viral with a dire (if exaggerated) warning, telling people: “If you’re planning to visit the US anytime soon, you shouldn’t… They’re about to require you to submit your DNA and all of your biometrics and all of your social medias and all of your email addresses and all of your phone numbers and all of your family’s [information].” americanbazaaronline.com. The post, reshared on X with the hashtag #boycottamerica, quickly gained traction – reflecting the mix of alarm, confusion, and anger circulating online americanbazaaronline.com.

While the claim about DNA was unfounded, the core fear it tapped into is real. There is a “growing trend of travel-related fears and boycott calls” on social media in response to U.S. policies americanbazaaronline.com. Some foreign commenters cite the intrusive digital screening and say it’s “not worth it” to holiday in the U.S. anymore. Others invoke principle: why support a country that seems unwelcoming or politically at odds with their values? “Out of fear or even national pride, many travelers are rethinking their travel plans,” as a Canadian podcast put it podcasts.apple.com. This grassroots sentiment is especially strong in Canada, where skipping trips south has become, for some, a quiet form of protest or patriotism. But it echoes in parts of Europe too – for instance, anecdotes of Europeans canceling U.S. vacations over disagreement with U.S. policies are commonly shared in comment threads.

Even mainstream figures have chimed in on social media. When Trump publicly dismissed the drop in visitors as “not a big deal” and chalked it up to a “little bit of nationalism” theguardian.com, many reacted online with skepticism or sarcasm – pointing to the hospitality industry’s serious concerns. Memes and posts comparing Canada’s friendlier border welcome (“Come to Canada instead!”) versus the U.S.’s stringent checks have been circulating since the new rules were floated youtube.com. In short, America’s reputation as an easygoing travel destination has taken a hit on social networks, which may further dampen tourism as negative perceptions spread virally.

Online, travel hesitation has become cultural shorthand — shared, reshared, and amplified.

Tourism Industry and Officials Respond

Faced with these trends, travel stakeholders in the U.S. and Canada are responding with both alarm and outreach. The U.S. tourism sector fears a “Trump slump” in international visitors could cost billions and jobs across states – from big-city hotels to theme parks and national parks theguardian.com. Industry research group Tourism Economics revised its 2025 forecast from a 9% growth in foreign arrivals (predicted before Trump’s inauguration) to a 12% decline, a drastic swing attributed to trade turmoil and traveler antipathy theguardian.com. They estimate around a $10 billion loss in spending by international tourists this year theguardian.com. This downturn is broad-based: traditionally popular states like Florida (reliant on Canadian and European snowbirds), California and New York (which draw many overseas tourists), and even Texas (popular with Latin American and European visitors) are all expected to feel the pain equally theguardian.com. “There’s nowhere to hide,” warns Tourism Economics’ president, noting that travel demand is highly “elastic” to how welcome (or unwelcome) people feel theguardian.com.

In response, some U.S. officials are trying to repair the image and reassure foreign visitors. For example, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom in April 2025 launched an international ad campaign with Visit California aimed at Canadians, stressing that “California is a grateful partner and remains one of the most welcoming destinations in the United States, and the world.” paxnews.com. This kind of state-level outreach directly pushes back on Trump’s hostile messaging, effectively saying: please keep coming, we value you. Travel industry groups are also lobbying against policies they see as deterrents. The U.S. Travel Association has been vocal in opposing the new social media disclosure rule, urging the administration to reconsider because it could drive travelers (and their dollars) away reuters.com.

On the Canadian side, tourism boards and politicians have doubled down on promoting domestic travel, as mentioned earlier, but they too want the cross-border traffic back eventually. Canadian officials have expressed hope that tensions will ease; in the meantime, they’re focusing on traveler awareness. Canada’s updated advisories and the warnings issued to certain professional groups are meant to educate citizens on the risks, so they can make informed choices or take precautions if travel is necessary paxnews.com.

Finally, looking ahead, the 2026 World Cup – jointly hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico – is looming as a potential boost for U.S. tourism if policies soften. American travel businesses are “banking on the event to help rebound from [the] drop in tourism since Trump took office.” reuters.com. But success may depend on whether foreign fans feel comfortable coming. If the current climate of intimidation and confusion persists, many could opt to attend matches in Canada or Mexico instead of U.S. venues. In other words, unless the U.S. finds a way to reassure international travelers that they will be safe, respected, and hassle-free during their visit, the tourism slump may continue or even deepen – an outcome no one in the industry wants.

When travellers don’t feel welcome, they simply go where they do.

Conclusion

In summary, the last 10 months have seen a convergence of factors – trade wars, stringent vetting, heated rhetoric, and global political rifts – that together are deterring foreign visitors to the United States. From Canadians canceling shopping weekends and snowbird winters, to Europeans choosing more welcoming destinations, the impact on tourism is tangible. Many would-be travelers feel intimidated by U.S. border procedures or simply unwelcome due to the current White House stance toward outsiders. This trend is being reinforced by social media conversations urging people to “think twice” about U.S. travel. While some U.S. regions and businesses are attempting damage control, the numbers so far reflect significant declines. The message is clear: when travelers feel vulnerable or targeted, they will take their passports – and their tourism dollars – elsewhere independent.co.uk. Rebuilding confidence will be crucial if the U.S. hopes to remain a top global travel destination in the coming years.

Sources:

Open Jaw / The Independent – “Trivago Reports Double-Digit Booking Drops to US from Canada, Mexico and Japan”openjaw.com
PAX News – “900,000 fewer people went to the U.S. in March, says CBP”paxnews.com paxnews.com
The Guardian – “US to miss out on billions as Trump’s policies deter overseas tourists”theguardian.com
CBS News – “Trump trade wars could tank foreign tourism in the U.S., report finds”cbsnews.com cbsnews.com
Reuters – “US social media requirements for foreign visitors could have 'chilling effect' on travel”reuters.com reuters.com
American Bazaar – “‘Don’t travel to the US’: Viral TikTok claims America will demand DNA from foreign visitors”americanbazaaronline.com
CBC Front Burner Podcast – “Are you worried about U.S. travel?” (May 2025)podcasts.apple.com